Multiple factors help accelerate export growth

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in US dollar terms, China's total import and export value in the first half of the year was 2.98 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2.9%. Among them, the total export value reached 1.71 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.6%. In June alone, China's total import and export value was 516.66 billion US dollars, of which the total export value reached 307.85 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.6%. Industry experts believe that overall, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of China's exports in the first half of the year reached 3.6%, which is significantly better than the same period last year. This means that external demand played an important role in driving the domestic economy to recover and improve in the first half of the year.

When it comes to the reasons for maintaining a high growth rate in exports, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that it was mainly driven by the sinking of the base in the same period last year and the strong export momentum at present. The year-on-year growth rate of export volume in June rose at a high level, better than the market's general expectations. Overall, the recovery of external demand and the sustained effectiveness of domestic policies to stabilize foreign trade in the first half of the year are the main reasons for the recovery of positive export growth.

From the perspective of trading partners, in the first half of the year, ASEAN, EU, and the United States accounted for 15.9%, 12.8%, and 10.8% of China's total foreign trade value, respectively. In the first half of the year, China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and India maintained rapid growth, while exports to traditional markets continued to improve. Among them, exports to the United States increased from a decline in May to further accelerate growth in June, while the decline in exports to the European Union and Japan continued to narrow, "said Luo Huanjie, Senior Macro Researcher at Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute. This indicates that China's trade partner diversification strategy is constantly being optimized.

From the perspective of export commodities, in the first half of the year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 7.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2%, accounting for nearly 60% of China's total export value and maintaining a relatively high proportion. Luo Huanjie believes that this indicates that the trend of continuous upgrading and improvement of China's export structure is constantly consolidating. Among them, the export value of ships, integrated circuits, and automobiles is relatively high, becoming the main contributing force to the high-speed growth of electromechanical product exports.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the first half of the year, the import and export of private enterprises reached 11.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2%, accounting for 55% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year, further highlighting the role of the main force in foreign trade. During the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises reached 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%, accounting for 29.1% of China's total foreign trade value. The import and export of state-owned enterprises reached 3.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2%, accounting for 15.6% of China's total foreign trade value.

High tech product imports maintain rapid growth

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in US dollar terms, China's total import value reached 1.27 trillion US dollars in the first half of the year, an increase of 2%. According to Wang Qing's analysis, from January to June this year, against the backdrop of a significant decline in the same period last year, the cumulative year-on-year increase in imports was only 2.0%, lower than the export growth rate of 3.6%, and the performance was not as expected. The main reason is the weak driving force of domestic demand on import demand.

From monthly data, the import volume in June decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate slowing down by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a weak import momentum for the month. Regarding the decline in import growth rate, Wang Jing, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed that China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, which was the same as the previous month, but still lower than the average level of the same period in recent years. The low operation of industry new order indices such as new order index and raw material inventory index confirms that domestic demand needs to be boosted. As a result, the growth rate of China's major commodity imports decreased in June.

From the perspective of imported goods, in the first half of the year, the import of automatic data processing equipment and its components, LCD flat panel display modules, integrated circuits, and high-tech products all maintained a rapid double-digit growth. Industry experts believe that this indirectly reflects the transformation of the economy towards high-quality products. China has a strong demand for high-end and high-tech goods, and the trend of production and consumption upgrading is gradually being established. On the other hand, these imported goods have a high level of technological innovation, which also helps to promote the rapid development of China's new quality productivity.

Exports are expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year

Looking ahead to the situation of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year, Luo Huanjie believes that, driven by factors such as a low base, relatively stable external demand, continuous improvement in export structure, and accelerated implementation of export support policies, exports are still expected to maintain rapid growth. Driven by high raw material prices, equipment updates, and the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods, the recovery of domestic demand will provide support for the import of electronic components and consumer goods, and the import growth rate is expected to accelerate again.

Specifically, in terms of exports, industry experts generally believe that the continued rebound in international demand is an important foundation for the continued increase in export growth in the near future. According to Wang Jing's analysis, the latest data from the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Organization for Trade and Development shows that global trade grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and it is expected that the global trade volume will reach nearly 32 trillion US dollars in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In the second half of the year, the monetary policy shift of European and American economies may continue to release investment and consumption demand, and the cyclical upward trend of the global electronic information industry will strengthen. This will help international demand continue to recover, thereby driving China's export growth rate to rebound.

Currently, the trend of upgrading China's export structure is clear, and the international competitiveness of products in emerging fields continues to improve, further consolidating new export momentum. However, it should also be noted that the external environment remains highly uncertain, and the geopolitical situation remains complex and volatile. European and American trade protectionism measures may further affect intermediate goods trade. Industry experts believe that this situation will put certain pressure on China's export growth.

In terms of imports, Wang Jing believes that the degree of improvement in growth rate will depend on the improvement in domestic demand. The increase in fiscal expenditure in the second half of the year will accelerate infrastructure investment, while market and policy factors will drive rapid growth in manufacturing investment. The policies of exchanging old for new consumer goods and large-scale equipment upgrades will continue to be effective, which will help China's economy maintain overall stability and provide important support for improving imports.